新冠肺炎疫情后各国主权债务风险及其前景

新冠肺炎疫情及其经济冲击促使许多国家财政赤字率和政府债务率大幅升高,其影响程度超过了2008年国际金融危机。笔者既不赞成现代货币理论(MMT)的看法,也不认同悲观派的看法。从影响各国主权债务风险的几大因素看,一些新兴市场经济体尤其需要关注利率的3种风险溢价:通胀风险溢价、货币贬值风险溢价和信誉(违约风险)溢价。展望未来,发达经济体和新兴市场经济体将花费数年时间进行财政收支和政府债务调整,以渐进方式推进政府部门的去杠杆。     

新冠肺炎疫情对外贸影响的研究

2020年春节前,新冠肺炎疫情来势汹汹,给我国交通运输、餐饮业等服务业带来了巨大打击,特别是外贸受到较大影响,不仅延迟复工影响到外贸订单履行,疫情让一些国家取消中国企业订单,严厉的管制措施影响到外贸活动的开展,而且一些国家的恶意推动恶化了中国外贸环境。应进一步加强与国际组织和相关国家的沟通、实施力度更大的积极财政政策、加大对重点行业的扶持力度、持续改善投资环境,为我国外贸健康发展保驾护航。     

Return connectedness across asset classes around the COVID-19 outbreak

In this paper, we show evidence of a dramatic change in the structure and time-varying patterns of return connectedness across various assets (gold, crude oil, world equities, currencies, and bonds) around the COVID-19 outbreak. Using the TVP-VAR connectedness approach, the results show that the dynamic total connectedness across the five assets was moderate and quite stable until early 2020. After that, the total connectedness spikes and the structure of the network of connectedness alters, which concurs with the COVID-19 outbreak. The equity and USD indices are the primary transmitters of shocks before the outbreak, whereas the bond index becomes the main transmitters of shocks during the COVID-19 outbreak. However, the USD index is a net receiver of shocks to other assets during the outbreak period. Furthermore, using a recently developed newspaper-based index of uncertainty in financial markets due to infectious diseases to capture the recent impact of COVID-19, we find that connectedness is positively related to this index, and increases at higher levels (conditional quantiles) of connectedness. Overall, our results reflect the speedy disturbing effects of the COVID-19 outbreak, which matters to the formulations of policies seeking to achieve financial stability. The results also indicate a possibility to threaten investors’ portfolios and fade the benefits of diversification.     

疫情对进出口企业的影响机制及其效应研究

疫情蔓延给出口企业带来了显著冲击。本文采用2002—2003年中国工业企业的面板数据,从微观层面实证检验了“非典”疫情对我国企业出口的影响。研究结果表明:“非典”疫情导致我国企业出口产品价值显著下降;改变疫情严重程度、替换出口价值变量或通过PSM-DID模型等方法重新估计之后,疫情仍与企业出口显著负相关;疫情主要通过冲击企业的出口数量影响企业出口,而对出口产品价格有一定的提升作用;小企业及我国传统具有出口优势的行业受影响较大,疫情叠加贸易壁垒尤其是关税壁垒对企业出口具有更大的联动影响。     

新冠病毒疫情期间社会治理经验与问题研究——以邢台市任泽区为例

2020年初,一场突如其来的疫情席卷了全中国乃至整个世界,而中国政府反应迅速,上下联动,严防严控,保证了我们国家较低的死亡率和较高的治愈率。论文通过搜集文献、面访、电访等形式,详细了解政府所采取的具体措施和社会机构与政府间的合作,以达到探索并寻找更适合的疫情社会治理措施,对未来突发公共卫生事件提供借鉴意义的目的。     

新冠疫情期间宁夏疾病预防控制中心防控物资内控管理与风险防范

新冠肺炎疫情防控期间,防控物资的保障、管理与使用是审计监督的重点。论文分析了宁夏疾控中心在防控物资管理中潜在的风险点和采取的内控措施,提出了风险防范建议,为中心的疫情防控工作提供有益的参考。     

Market volatility and illiquidity during the COVID-19 outbreak: Evidence from the Saudi stock exchange through the wavelet coherence approaches

The aim of this paper is to examine the explanatory power of realized volatility on the illiquidity in Saudi stock market during the COVID-19 outbreak. To achieve this objective, we consider the Wavelet Coherence approaches as empirical tools to investigate the combined effect of realized volatility and COVID-19 counts on the market illiquidity across frequencies and over time space by taking in account the number of infected cases in Saudi Arabia and over the World, and the number of death cases in Saudi Arabia as well as over the World. Our study reaches two main findings. First, the preliminary results reported by the ARDL bound test as a benchmark model showed significant long-run and short-run effects of the market volatility on illiquidity in contemporaneous and lagged manner. Second, the wavelet coherence analysis tools exhibited important results: (i) the wavelet coherency between illiquidity ratio and realized volatility in Saudi Arabia appear highly pronounced over all time horizons. (ii) PWC plots showed a significant mutual effect between liquidity risk and realized volatility when eliminating the effect of local COVID-19 cases. (iii) MWC plots highlighted that the response of the market illiquidity index to both the amplification in confirmed local cases (resp. international confirmed cases) and the stock market volatility appear significant in the short and middle horizons.     

浅析疫情常态化下做好引才引智的策略研究

要想做好引才引智工作,必须结合国际引才引智服务标准,立足企业的行业领域和发展特点,针对企业的需求,整合优质的人才资源和技术项目资源,科学、合理、有序地开展引才引智活动,着眼创新产业发展趋势,聚焦行业前沿成果,引进全球知名孵化器及服务机构,借鉴其优质服务模式,实现海内外高新技术企业和高层次人才内引外联,推动孵化载体和中小企业的国际化进程,为企业提供优质、动态、灵活、操作性强的引才引智服务。     

新冠疫情对经济的影响分析及对策研究

2019年年底至2020年年初,新冠疫情在湖北省发生并向全国迅速蔓延。截至目前,在中央有力领导下疫情得到阶段性控制,但对经济增长的影响不容忽视。通过梳理疫情发生对经济产生的影响以及国内外各界解决问题的相应举措,探讨如何完善财政金融、货币政策、社会治理、公共安全治理机制等促进经济的恢复,金融如何发挥"经济助推器"和"社会稳定器"作用,并对防范相关风险提出政策建议。     

转变生产消费方式诉求下的动物福利规制分析——基于防控新冠肺炎的思考

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情给中国造成了重大生命健康和经济损失,也表明了合理利用与善待动物的重要性。中国已到了关注动物福利的发展阶段,改善动物福利水平不仅是保障食品安全、突破隐性贸易壁垒障碍的要求,更是促使人们改变生产与消费习惯,进而防范动物源性传染病疫情发生的要求。中国目前已有了对动物福利进行规制的民众基础,应进一步提升民众对动物福利的认知、加大对动物福利学理及国际规制趋向的研究。在此基础上制定有中国特色、长远引导、不断完善的与动物福利相关的法规、制度和政策,从而有效防范类似新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的发生。